EMI – Flash: Ukraine

By Derek On March 4, 2014 Under Uncategorized

“Move along. Nothing to see here, folks.” Common phrase used by the NYPD, usually after a traffic accident.

PutinBear

Conclusions:

  • There will be no war in Ukraine or over Ukraine. The crisis is past.
  • Russia will maintain “significant control” over Crimea and possibly to a lesser extent over eastern Ukraine as well.
  • Western Ukraine (including Kiev and land west of the Dnieper River) will become a weak state and buffer zone between the competing ideologies of Russian statism and European liberalism.
  • Russia has much to gain from this (territory as well as influence at home and abroad) and very little to lose.
  • Ukraine is not a member of NATO and NATO has no defense obligations to the country.
  • Russia is still a member of the UN Security Council and will veto any UN action (China would also use its veto).
  • Global market impact is close to zero.

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